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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Predicting the Geography of House Prices
Bernard Fingleton
February 2010
Paper No' SERCDP0045:
Full Paper (pdf)

JEL Classification: C21; C31; O18; R12; R31

Tags: new economic geography; real estate prices; spatial econometrics; panel data; prediction

Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate shortterm ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.