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Abstract:

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CEP BREXIT Analysis
The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Deal
Peter Levell, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson
November 2018
Paper No' CEPBREXIT12:
Full Paper (pdf)

Tags: brexit; trade; immigration; public policy; government

Amidst the political fighting and fevered speculation about leadership challenges and parliamentary defeats for the government, one crucial issue seems to have been lost from sight. The deal negotiated with the European Union will, if approved and implemented, have significant implications for the UK economy. In what follows, we provide an objective and impartial analysis of what those implications might be. Comparing the deal with the cases of continuing membership of the EU and a ‘no deal’ outcome, we attempt to come to some conclusions about the economic effects of the decision that parliament will debate in the coming weeks. As ever, this report has relied on the hard work of a number of individuals. It was written by Peter Levell and Thomas Sampson, alongside ourselves. We would like to express our profound gratitude to Swati Dhingra, Hanwei Huang and Thomas Pope for their hard work and willingness to work to unreasonable deadlines. We hope they are as pleased as we are with the outcome, and that you find what follows useful in assessing the Brexit deal on offer. Anand Menon and Jonathan Portes