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Abstract:

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CEP BREXIT Analysis
The economic impact of Boris Johnsonís Brexit proposals
Matt Bevington, Hanwei Huang, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Thomas Sampson October 2019
Paper No' CEPBREXIT16:
Full Paper (pdf)

Tags: brexit; trade; immigration; public policy; government

The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What has been striking, though, is the extent to which the debate about the proposals has focused on the implications of what the government has proposed for Northern Ireland. Clearly, these matter enormously. However, it is worth emphasising that the proposals for the rest of the UK also have significant and far-reaching implications.

Here we set out the differences between the key elements of Mrs May's deal (some of which were enshrined in the backstop) and Mr Johnson's preferred destination. As ever, we have been lucky enough to be able to draw on the skills and expertise of some of the leading experts in the field. The bulk of the work was done by Hanwei Huang, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson, with contributions from Matt Bevington and Jill Rutter. Hanwei and Thomas used the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance trade model to carry out the modelling.