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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery
Michael Artis and Marianne Sensier
April 2011
Paper No' SERCDP0079:
Full Paper (pdf)

JEL Classification: C22; E32; E37; E40

Tags: classical business cycles; forecasting

This paper assesses turning points in the economic cycle of Welsh unitary authorities by applying a mathematical algorithm to the claimant count unemployment data. All but one unitary authority has now emerged from recession (Anglesey being the exception). We also date the business cycle for the UK and country-level employment data and Wales has emerged from recession but Scotland is yet to exit recession. We estimate a logistic model which utilises housing sector and survey data to forecast the Welsh employment cycle. The model predicts that employment in Wales will continue to grow into 2011.