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CEP discussion paper
The Geography of Inter-State Resource Wars
Francesco Caselli, Massimo Morelli and Dominic Rohner
May 2013
Paper No' CEPDP1212:
Full Paper (pdf)

JEL Classification: Q34

Tags: conflict; natural resources; territorial war; energy economics

We establish a theoretical as well as empirical framework to assess the role of resource endowments and their geographic location for inter-State conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict tends to be more likely when at least one country has natural resources; when the resources in the resource-endowed country are closer to the border; and, in the case where both countries have natural resources, when the resources are located asymmetrically vis-a-vis the border. We test these predictions on a novel dataset featuring oilfield distances from bilateral borders. The empirical analysis shows that the presence and location of oil are significant and quantitatively important predictors of inter-State conflicts after WW2.

The Geography of Interstate Resource Wars, Francesco Caselli, Massimo Morelli and Dominic Rohner, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(1), February 2015.