All Publications
Browse our papers, briefing notes and responses to government consultations and inquiries
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All publications
CVER Research Paper
Young people, human capital investment and the Great Recession
Policy makers recognise the importance of encouraging young people to stay in education for longer. We use the experience of the Great Recession in England to evaluate whether the incentive to invest in human capital bea...Read more...
Chiara Cavaglia and Sandra McNally
8 August 2025
CVER Research Paper
The mismatch earnings penalty
We disentangle the relationship between student ability, course quality and the match between the two on earnings, estimating the first mismatch parameter in the literature. Using administrative data on all state-educate...Read more...
Chiara Cavaglia, Lindsey Macmillan, Konstantina Maragkou, Richard Murphy and Gill Wyness
11 November 2024
CVER Research Paper
Immigration and vocational training: Evidence from England
Firms have two ways to ensure access to a skilled workforce: they can train their employees to the required level of skill or they can hire workers who are already skilled. Training is costly and an increase in the avail...Read more...
Alan Manning, Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura
10 January 2024
CVER Research Paper
The Recent Evolution of Apprenticeships: participation and pathways
The number of apprenticeship starts in England has reduced dramatically in recent years following government reforms and the COVID-19 pandemic. The composition has also shifted from almost complete domination by low and ...Read more...
Chiara Cavaglia, Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura
8 December 2022
CVER Research Paper
On Track to Success? Returns to vocational education against different alternatives
Many countries consider expanding vocational curricula in secondary education to boost skills and labour market outcomes among non-university-bound students. However, critics fear this could divert other students from mo...Read more...
Sönke Hendrik Matthewes and Guglielmo Ventura
11 November 2022
CVER Research Paper
Do Management Practices Matter in Further Education?
Further Education colleges are a key way in which 16-19 year olds acquire skills in the UK (much like US Community Colleges), especially those from low income backgrounds. Yet, little is known about what could improve pe...Read more...
Sandra McNally, Luis Schmidt and Anna Valero
8 March 2022
CVER Research Paper
The Effects of College Capital Projects on Student Outcome
The general debate on the relationship between school resources and student outcomes is an old and controversial one (for reviews see, for example, Hanushek, 1989, 1997 and Gibbons and McNally, 2013), although there is l...Read more...
Stephen Gibbons, Claudia Hupkau, Sandra McNally and Henry G. Overman
23 November 2021
CVER Research Paper
The impact of the Apprenticeship Levy on Apprenticeships and other training outcomes
Since April 2017, UK employers with an annual pay bill above £3 million have contributed to the Apprenticeship Levy. In this paper we use a matched firm-learner dataset to explore changes in apprenticeship and other trai...Read more...
Gavan Conlon, Andy Dickerson, Steven McIntosh and Pietro Patrignani
14 April 2021
CVER Research Paper
Trends in job-related training and policies for building future skills into the recovery
The trends outlined in this paper and the broader evidence suggest that new or enhanced policies to increase the quantity and quality of job-related training are required, particularly for younger workers or those with l...Read more...
Jiaqi Li, Anna Valero and Guglielmo Ventura
16 December 2020
CVER Research Paper
Gender, achievement, and subject choice in English education
In common with other OECD countries, there is a gender gap in educational achievement in England favouring girls. This carries through to tertiary education. On the other hand, boys are far more likely to engage in STEM ...Read more...
Chiara Cavaglia, Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela
20 October 2020
CVER Research Paper
Closing the Gap Between Vocational and General Education? Evidence from University Technical Colleges in England
Some countries, notably those which have long had a weak history of vocational education like the UK and the US, have recently seen a rapid expansion of hybrid schools which provide both general and vocational education....Read more...
Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally, Camille Terrier and Guglielmo Ventura
14 October 2020
CVER Briefing Note
Post-18 education – who is taking the different routes and how much do they earn?
This paper describes the educational trajectories and labour market outcomes for people who completed their GCSEs between 2002 and 2006. Our long span of longitudinal data enables us to follow these individuals through t...Read more...
Jack Britton, Hector Espinoza, Sandra McNally, Stefan Speckesser, Imran Tahir and Anna Vignoles
11 September 2020
CVER Research Paper
Where versus What: College Value-Added and Returns to Field of Study in Further Education
Enrolling in vocational education and training programs constitutes a natural response to the current dynamics of the labour market, which is being reshaped by routinisation, automation, and outsourcing. We estimate the ...Read more...
Esteban M. Aucejo, Claudia Hupkau and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela
23 June 2020
CVER Research Paper
Gender and Socio-Economic Differences in STEM Uptake and Attainment
The underrepresentation of women in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) occupations is a world-wide phenomenon and a concern for policy makers. This is the case in the UK where a shortage of STEM skills is ...Read more...
Emily McDool and Damon Morris
20 March 2020
CVER Research Paper
The long-term impact of improving non-cognitive skills of adolescents: Evidence from an English remediation programme
In this paper, we estimate the long-term labour market effects of Entry to Employment (E2E), an intervention designed to improve the non-cognitive skills of low-achieving adolescents in England. Using an instrumental var...Read more...
Vahé Nafilyan, Stefan Speckesser and Augustin de Coulon
13 March 2020
CVER Research Paper
Post-Compulsory Education Pathways and Labour Market Outcomes
We employ sequence analysis techniques to evaluate the myriad of different pathways individuals take through the education system into the labour market. Using data from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England ...Read more...
Andy Dickerson, Emily McDool and Damon Morris
7 February 2020
CVER Briefing Note
Exploring trends in apprenticeship training around the introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy: emerging evidence using a matched apprentice-employer dataset
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Alice Battiston, Gavan Conlon, Gavan Conlon, Andy Dickerson, Steven McIntosh and Pietro Patrignani
27 January 2020
CVER Research Paper
Peer Effects and Social Influence in Post-16 Educational Choice
This paper investigates the impact of peers' ability on an individual's post-compulsory educational choices in terms of whether they select an academic route or a vocational route. In order to overcome the common problem...Read more...
Alice Battiston, Sophie Hedges, Thomas Lazarowicz and Stefan Speckesser
7 January 2020
CVER Briefing Note
Inequality in education and labour market participation of young people across English localities:An exploration based on Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) data
Currently, 792,000 16-24-year olds in the UK – 11.5% of the age group – are Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET), but not much is known about how this differs by local area. In this Briefing Note, we provide c...Read more...
Janine Boshoff, Jamie Moore and Stefan Speckesser
25 November 2019
CVER Research Paper
BTECs, higher education and labour market outcomes using the Longitudinal Education Outcome (LEO) dataset
Abstract In this paper, we investigate individual characteristics and labour market outcomes for students progressing to first degree qualifications after attaining a level 3 BTEC. Using a comparison group of individuals...Read more...
Alice Battiston, Gavan Conlon and Pietro Patrignani
21 October 2019
CVER Research Paper
Socio-economic inequality and academic match among post-compulsory education participants
The study investigates the impact of socioeconomic background on the academic match of students in post-compulsory upper-secondary education making use of detailed individual-level linked administrative data from schools...Read more...
Konstantina Maragkou
27 September 2019
CVER Research Paper
The value of progression in further education
In this study, we investigate the value of progression associated with different vocational qualifications disaggregated by subject area of study. Previous analyses of labour market outcomes by subject of study demonstra...Read more...
Alice Battiston, Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges and Pietro Patrignani
19 August 2019
CVER Research Paper
Labour market outcomes disaggregated by subject area using the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) data
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between labour market outcomes and vocational qualifications disaggregated by subject area of study. Using individuals holding vocational qualifications in any subject at th...Read more...
Alice Battiston, Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges and Pietro Patrignani
19 August 2019
CVER Research Paper
The Changing Demand for Skills in the UK
We present estimates of changes in skills utilisation and in the returns to skills in the UK for 2002-2016 using new measures of skills derived from a systematic and detailed matching between the US O*NET system and UK S...Read more...
Andy Dickerson and Damon Morris
26 April 2019
CVER Research Paper
A comparison of earnings related to higher level vocational/technical and academic education
Using rich administrative data for a full cohort of English secondary school leavers (2002/03 academic year), we compare earnings of people with higher vocational/technical qualifications to the earnings of degree holder...Read more...
Hector Espinoza and Stefan Speckesser
3 April 2019
CVER Research Paper
Devolving Skills: The case of the Apprenticeship Grant for Employers
One rationale for devolution is that local decision makers may be well placed to adapt national skills’ policies to the local context. We test whether such adaptation helps meet programme objectives in the case of the A...Read more...
Chiara Cavaglia, Sandra McNally and Henry G. Overman
6 March 2019
CVER Research Paper
The causal effect of secondary school peers on educational aspirations
This paper uses data from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) to investigate how the educational aspirations of secondary school pupils in Year 9 (at age 14) and in Year 11 (at age 16) are influence...Read more...
Andy Dickerson, Konstantina Maragkou and Steven McIntosh
11 October 2018
CVER Research Paper
Labour Market Outcomes of Older Versus Younger Apprentices: A Comparison of Earnings Differentials
Over the last decade, there has been a large increase in the number of individuals completing an apprenticeship, with the growth in numbers particularly strong amongst those age 25+ when starting their apprenticeship. Th...Read more...
Steven McIntosh and Damon Morris
7 September 2018
CVER Research Paper
Do apprenticeships pay? Evidence for England
The importance of apprenticeships for early labour market transitions varies across countries and over time. In recent times, there has been a policy drive to increase the number of people undertaking apprenticeships in ...Read more...
Chiara Cavaglia, Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura
7 September 2018
CVER Briefing Note
Apprenticeships in England: what does research tell us?
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Sandra McNally
12 July 2018
CVER Research Paper
Entry through the narrow door: the costs of just failing high stakes exams
In many countries, important thresholds in examinations act as a gateway to higher levels of education and/or good employment prospects. This paper examines the consequences of just failing a key high stakes national exa...Read more...
Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela
13 April 2018
CVER Research Paper
Settling the counterfactual debate: Is there a preferable counterfactual when estimating the returns to vocational qualifications?
Using information from the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) data set, it is now possible to compare the characteristics and estimates for learners with different qualifications encompassing both types of counterfact...Read more...
Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges and Pietro Patrignani
11 April 2018
CVER Briefing Note
Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits
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Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta, Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally
13 March 2018
CVER Briefing Note
Further analysis of the earnings differentials associated with BTECs
We analyse whether there is an earnings differential associated with having a BTEC qualification as a young person’s highest qualification. Previous analyses of wage differentials using survey data on a sample of all wor...Read more...
Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges and Pietro Patrignani
23 February 2018
CVER Research Paper
Skills, Signals, and Employability: An Experimental Investigation
As skills of labor-market entrants are usually not directly observed by employers, individuals acquire skill signals. To study which signals are valued by employers, we simultaneously and independently randomize a broad ...Read more...
Marc Piopiunik, Guido Schwerdt, Lisa Simon and Ludger Woessmann
2 February 2018
CVER Briefing Note
Effectiveness of CEOs in the public sector: evidence from further education institutions
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Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, Camille Terrier and Clémentine Van Effenterre
19 December 2017
CVER Research Paper
Building apprentices’ skills in the workplace: Car Service in Germany, the UK and Spain
This paper analyses how employers in three countries, Germany, the UK and Spain experience and view apprenticeship. The focus is a single occupation – Vehicle Maintenance and Repair (Car Service) based on case studies an...Read more...
Philipp Grollmann, Hilary Steedman, Anika Jansen and Robert Gray
5 December 2017
CVER Research Paper
Apprenticeships for Young People in England: Is there a Payoff?
In recent times, there has been a policy drive to increase the number of people undertaking apprenticeships in England. In this paper we examine the characteristics of young people who start an apprenticeship and we look...Read more...
Chiara Cavaglia, Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura
30 November 2017
CVER Research Paper
The Payoff to Vocational Qualifications: Reconciling Estimates from Survey and Administrative Data
This paper takes as a starting point the wage/earnings differentials associated with vocational qualifications that have been estimated in the literature. Two distinct parts of that literature are identified, using surve...Read more...
Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges, Steven McIntosh, Damon Morris and Pietro Patrignani
24 November 2017
CVER Research Paper
Peer Effects and Social Influence in Post-16 Educational Choice
This paper investigates whether the educational choices that young people make after the completion of their GCSEs (at age 16) are influenced by their peers. More specifically, it takes advantage of the variation in peer...Read more...
Sophie Hedges and Stefan Speckesser
6 November 2017
CVER Research Paper
The earnings differentials associated with vocational education and training using the Longitudinal Education Outcomes data
For the first time, the matched Longitudinal Education Outcomes has been made available for analysis of qualification attainment and labour market outcomes in England. Using comprehensive information from different schoo...Read more...
Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges and Pietro Patrignani
9 October 2017
CVER Research Paper
The longer the better? The impact of the 2012 apprenticeship reform in England on achievement and other outcomes
In this paper, we estimate the effect of a reform of apprenticeships in England in 2012, which changed the duration for Intermediate Apprenticeships in many industries, while other sectors already exceeded the incoming m...Read more...
Vahé Nafilyan and Stefan Speckesser
26 September 2017
CVER Briefing Note
An analysis of the duration and achievement of apprenticeships in England
For the cohort of all 516,880 intermediate and advanced apprenticeships starting in England in 2011/12, we find that one third were withdrawn and a further 10 per cent were not completed within 36 months. We find that c...Read more...
Matthew Bursnall, Vahé Nafilyan and Stefan Speckesser
25 September 2017
CVER Research Paper
Post 16 remedial policies: a literature review
Remedial interventions in tertiary education are under scrutiny in most OECD countries. They are particularly important in a context of increasing demand for skilled workers. However, they are often costly, and their eff...Read more...
Clémentine Van Effenterre
24 April 2017
CVER Briefing Note
The incidence of publicly funded training in England
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Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges, Daniel Herr and Pietro Patrignani
30 March 2017
CVER Briefing Note
The Decision to Undertake an Apprenticeship: A Case Study
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Steven McIntosh
28 March 2017
CVER Research Paper
Young people in low level vocational education: characteristics, trajectories and labour market outcomes
Although 10% of school leavers in England start low level vocational education (normally below Level 2, ‘BL2’), very little is known about the characteristics of learners, their participation in vocational education and ...Read more...
Sophie Hedges, Vahé Nafilyan, Stefan Speckesser and Augustin de Coulon
24 March 2017
CVER Briefing Note
Further Education in England: Learners and Institutions
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Claudia Hupkau and Guglielmo Ventura
21 February 2017
CVER Research Paper
Vocational vs. General Education and Employment over the Life-Cycle: New Evidence from PIAAC
It has been argued that vocational education facilitates the school-to-work transition but reduces later adaptability to changing environments. Using the recent international PIAAC data, we confirm such a trade-off over ...Read more...
Franziska Hampf and Ludger Woessmann
23 November 2016
CVER Research Paper
Labour Market Returns to Vocational Qualifications in the Labour Force Survey
This report uses data from the Labour Force Survey covering the period 1997-2015, to estimate wage premiums, or returns, to acquiring vocational qualifications. Different specifications of the wage equations are estimate...Read more...
Steven McIntosh and Damon Morris
24 October 2016
CVER Research Paper
Post-compulsory education in England: choices and implications
Most students do not follow the 'academic track' (i.e. A-levels) after leaving school and only about a third of students go to university before the age of 20. Yet, progression routes for the majority that do not take th...Read more...
Claudia Hupkau, Sandra McNally, Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela and Guglielmo Ventura
8 July 2016